Comparative analysis of the life-cycle costs of residential energy supply technologies

Abstract

Long-term experiences from the residential use of micro-cogeneration systems are not yet available. The evaluation of the economic viability of these systems therefore calls for feasibility studies and the development of computational models that accommodate uncertainties. In this paper, we review uncertainties related to the life-cycle costs of residential heating systems and present a comparative analysis, in order (i) to determine the impact of uncertainties on the economic viability of micro-cogeneration (which is represented by a natural gas boiler system equipped with a 1 kWe Solid Oxide Fuel Cell plant), and (ii) to compare this technology with alternative heating systems based on district heat, oil and electricity. Our results – which are based on the use of confidence intervals in capturing uncertainties about model parameters – suggests that micro-cogeneration seems an attractive alternative to heat pump and oil-based heating systems, while electrical heating still appears the superior alternative. Also, because the cost performance of micro-cogeneration is highly dependent on market conditions, it seems that the economic preconditions for the adoption of this technology should be closely monitored or even enhanced through investment subsidies.